The New York Times/Siena College just released its final poll of the cycle, and for Republicans, “cataclysmic” is the word I’d use. Democrats lead in all seven key Senate races:
Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed +11 (53–42)
Texas: James Talarico +7 (50–43)
Maine: Troy Jackson +6 (51–45)
Ohio: Sherrod Brown +5 (49–44)
Kansas: Adam Hamilton +5 (49–44)
Alaska: Mary Peltola +2 (48–46)
Iowa: Josh Turek +1 (48–47)
As for North Carolina, per the NYT: “The surveys did not include North Carolina, where polls have long found the Democrat leading and Republicans have pared back their campaign spending.”
If this holds, Democrats flip seven Republican seats and take the Senate by a margin of 54–46. (And not to put the cart about 10,000 yard before the horse, but in 2028, Republicans will be defending North Carolina and Wisconsin. Win both, and there is a universe where Democrats head toward 2030 with 55 seats).
But wishcasting aside, let’s get through the 2026 midterm cycle first.
Polls don’t vote. People do.
These poll numbers are not self-executing. Vote, and then get your friends and family to vote. Remember— we are entitled to nothing. And also remember— Republicans will lie, cheat, and steal to hold on to power, so we don’t just need to win, we need to run up the margins. That’s how this poll becomes reality.
Running up the margins serves another purpose, though. The difference between a Biden win and a Trump win in 2020 was about 42,000 votes across three states. Trump had no legitimate basis to cry fraud— but the razor thin margins certainly didn’t make things less ambiguous. But if we can deliver a blue tsunami on Election Day, then Trump’s inevitable post-election lawsuit hurricane will likely be reduced to a puddle. It’s one thing to litigate 42,000 ballots. It’s another thing entirely to sustain losses in Texas, Kansas, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, Maine, and so on— and yet still pretend that you were robbed.
There is merit to the idea that the election results can be “too big to rig.” Let’s aim for that.
Trump is on the ballot
You’ll hear “Trump isn’t on the ballot.” But he is. His party has handed him every ounce of its autonomy. They have said nothing as the tariffs sent costs surging, as the Iran war sent gas prices to record highs, and as the Epstein files have been buried. Republicans in Congress are supposed to be in a co-equal branch of government, a check on the executive, and yet they’re too chickenshit to lift a finger in opposition to the president.
Not only will Ken Paxton, Darline Graham, John James, Susan Collins, and Michael Whatley, among others, be rubber stamps for Trump, they are there expressly because they won’t stand up to him. The price of admission into today’s Republican Party is slavish devotion to one man.
The choice
If you like how expensive everything is, if you like footing the bill for a war with Iran, if you like that the president is growing his fortune by billions in office while you choose between food and medicine, if you like that he was friends with Jeffrey Epstein and his DOJ is still sitting on the files, then the Republican Party will happily preserve the status quo.
But if you want a party that holds the powerful to account and focuses on working Americans instead of the billionaires who exploit them, vote. In every state, in every district. For those who think that politics doesn’t affect them, I should remind you: If you drive, eat, shop, heat or cool your home, need healthcare, or pay taxes, politics affects you. And you should ensure that your voice is heard.
We deserve so much better. Let’s make sure we get it.
Join Me
I will be live-streaming the election results on YouTube. The stream is sponsored by DDHQ, so I will have up-to-the-minute results. Click this link and click "NOTIFY ME” to join me as we usher in a Democratic majority.
I wish for all sensible Americans that this will happen. Good luck and cheering for democracy from Canada
Too big to rig...Lets go America 🇺🇸