Trump gets a lesson in FAFO

Unfortunately, America will suffer the consequences

The former and future president has lived a life rich with effing around…without finding out all that much. We were reminded of as much this week, when we learned that Trump’s election subversion indictment had been dismissed. Special counsel Jack Smith filed the motion—citing DOJ’s policy against prosecuting sitting presidents—and Judge Tanya Chutkan granted it. That was a rock-hard pill to swallow, especially given that his sentencing, had he not been elected, would have been determined this very week.

But Donald Trump’s streak of evading accountability for his threats and promises were put to the test this week, leaving open the possibility that—as disastrous as this term is shaping up to be—it may also lead to his Find Out era, thanks to Trump’s inane tariff scheme, which has been responded to in such a way that it may be flipped on its head before he even takes office.

Perhaps emboldened by confirmation that his indictment was being dismissed, he kicked off the week by taking to Truth Social, writing:

“On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders. This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!”

One of his many firsts… Get your Mar-a-Lago squatter, Elon, to explain that tariffs are a tax paid by the importer and passed on to the consumer.

Turns out our closest geographical neighbors understand exactly who Trump is—and have suffered proximity to his presence for long enough to know that diplomacy will be off the table. Ignorant claims, damaging lies, and brute force are the most likely replacements.

Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum swiftly responded on Tuesday, laying out that Mexico could respond with tariffs of its own on US products, schooling Trump by stating:

“Seventy percent of the illegal weapons seized from criminals in Mexico come from your country. We do not produce these weapons, nor do we consume synthetic drugs. Tragically, it is in our country that lives are lost to the violence resulting from meeting the drug demand in yours.”

Canada wasn’t far behind with its reaction, issuing a thinly veiled threat of its own:

“Our relationship today is balanced and mutually beneficial, particularly for American workers. Today, Canada buys more from the United States than China, Japan, France, and the UK combined. Canada is essential to US domestic energy supply, and last year 60 percent of US crude oil imports originated in Canada.”

So both countries are prepared for a trade war. Marvelous. I want to be crystal clear: there are no winners in a trade war. None. This isn’t a topic in which members from different sides of the aisle debate pros and cons. There are no pros.

Because, no matter how big and powerful we like to believe the United States is, and no matter how much Trump and—I don’t know, his AI caddies, who do nothing but nod affirmatively and praise his stroke—behave like this is not the case…we live in a global economy. And with one dumb declaration, Trump attacked two of our top three largest trade partners.

Absent from his awareness is that, just as much as we can inflict pain on THEM, THEY can inflict pain on us. Consider, for example, Canada’s leverage. There’s a reason that its deputy Prime Minister underscored that 60% of US crude oil imports originated in Canada. We rely on that oil to fuel our energy sector. This means they are NOT lacking in leverage, and if the US is going to launch an attack on Canada via tariffs, Canada will reciprocate, and they know they can.

It’s not just oil and gas. As you’re enjoying leftovers of sweet potatoes and stuffing, consider the leverage Mexico has over the US with regard to our food supply. Take a look at this chart, showing the source of our vegetables and produce.

All that green is imports from Mexico. Red is from Canada. That’s 15 billion pounds of produce—a gap for which we would not be able to compensate. Meaning we’ll still need to import the food, but—were Trump to go through with his ass-backward plan—it would just be far more expensive.

Why? Because, again, tariffs are a tax on the consumer of the importing country. That means us. And anyone who thinks that Trump wouldn’t POSSIBLY saddle us with a costly trade war, he did just that with China in 2018:

According to the Tax Foundation: The Trump administration imposed nearly $80 billion worth of new taxes on Americans by levying tariffs on thousands of products valued at approximately $380 billion in 2018 and 2019, amounting to one of the largest tax increases in decades.

Another trade war, especially with BOTH Canada and Mexico, would impact every part of our economy. This chart reveals what the US imported from Canada and Mexico in 2022:

Cars/tractors/trucks and parts; Machinery and appliances; Aluminum; Iron, steel, plastics; Wood; Plastics; Paper; Pharmaceuticals; Fertilizers…

And from Mexico? Machinery and technical appliances; Electronics; Cars/tractors/trucks and parts; Film equipment; Beverages and alcohol; Iron, steel, plastics; Furniture, bedding, lamps…

For clarity, this roundtable discussion from CNN makes it plain how much of our lives would be affected.

Trade wars have no winners. Leading with diplomacy when entering office is far more advantageous than entering the job with the global sensibility of an unhinged toddler banging his silver spoon. Promising an economic war on our ALLIES and neighbors (because these are not our adversaries) is not presidential. It’s not strategic. It’s the type of impulse of a man hell-bent on destruction, no matter the cost on American lives or livelihoods, let alone groceries or gas.

And look, we could go on and on about how these tariffs would touch every part of our lives, but what strikes me as the most brazen part is that Trump and his extreme Republican puppets spent a year lambasting the Biden White House for high prices as the result of inflation (which of course was out of their control). It was a global phenomenon. There wasn’t a single incumbent party in any industrialized country that did not lose seats in their majorities or lose their elections outright.

This buffoon was the beneficiary of that anti-incumbent sentiment. But now, the first thing he’s threatening to do is to take further action that would inevitably result in higher prices? (Which he will no doubt find a way to blame on the Dems.) In fact, Trump was the beneficiary of Biden’s efforts to curb immigration, as was also made evident by their president:

“You may not be aware that Mexico has developed a comprehensive policy to assist migrants from different parts of the world who cross our territory en route to the southern border of the United States. As a result, and according to data from your country’s Customs and Border Protection (CBP), encounters at the Mexico-United States border have decreased by 75% between December 2023 and November 2024.”

Don’t worry, he will no doubt take credit for that, and has already made moves in that direction, back-pedaling in his usual fashion, and correcting himself without actually admitting fault (which he will never, NEVER do):

Meanwhile, Canada’s Justin Trudeau visited Mar-a-Lago to dine with Trump (and to stay nearby, but not at the estate) tonight, perhaps because he recognizes that the net-zero benefit of a trade war among allies should be avoided.

But why did he place us in this position in the first place?

EITHER he truly does not have one single person in his orbit who understands the consequence of tariffs and their impact on consumers…OR he never cared about lowering costs and just needed to attack the Democrats on an issue that he recognized as being potent for voters.

Take all the time you need with that one.

Trump can parrot “americafirst” until he passes out face-first in a pool of Special Sauce, but—again—we live in a global economy, we rely on other countries to keep our economy running, they rely on us, and we’re all better off cooperating with them rather than declaring strife and war.

It’s foolish and panic attack-inducing to predict what will ever happen in Trump’s next era. But we can be certain that if he enacts this, everything will be more expensive: the car you may be driving in, the gas that filled your tank, the electronics on which you’re reading this, the food and alcohol you consumed today, and so much more. Which is to say nothing of severing amicable relationships with the folks next door. (Truthfully, the only upside would be returning to JD Vance’s grocery store to bemoan the elevated price of eggs.)

The Mexican and Canadian responses, ideally, would amount to a bold warning for the future president. Whether he’s capable of being enough of an adult to LISTEN, or heed their warnings or the underlying lesson…well, let’s just say that remains to be seen.