The real reason Trump is deploying the military into US cities

Yes, it's a distraction. Yes, it's an authoritarian power grab. But it's also more than that.

A lot of ink has been spilled about Trump’s decision to deploy the US military into Los Angeles. Yes, it was a well-timed distraction to shift our attention away from his feud with Elon Musk and his deeply unpopular budget bill that will strip healthcare away from 14 million Americans, gut $300 billion worth of food assistance, and explode the deficit to the tune of trillions. Yes, it was an authoritarian power grab at the hands of a man who never misses an opportunity to defy the law and consolidate more control for himself. And yes, it was just one more occasion for Trump to see how far he could push his party to comply, push Democrats to fight back, and push the courts to rein him in.

But there’s a far more insidious plan that Trump has long wanted to effectuate. Back in 2020, Trump engaged in discussions to seize voting machines as part of his effort to overturn the election results. Draft executive orders were prepared that would have directed either the Department of Defense or the Department of Homeland Security to execute that plan with the help of sycophants like Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, and Michael Flynn. To Trump’s dismay, the effort was ultimately abandoned after officials including Bill Barr, Chad Wolf, and Ken Cuccinelli reportedly told him and his allies that the government lacked the authority to seize the machines.

But Trump’s second term is about correcting the errors of his first. Never again will he empower people like Mike Pence and Mark Esper who refused to enact his illegal edicts. Never again will he be restrained from using the US military as his own personal police force. And never again will he miss his opportunity to entrench Republican control for the foreseeable future. Five years ago, Trump’s plan to seize voting machines and overturn the election was blocked from within the government, but what few responsible officials remained have been replaced by loyalists. And now, with Trump deploying the military into American cities, he will have boots on the ground to execute his plans.

In a recent episode of Democracy Watch, the nation’s premiere voting rights attorney Marc Elias explained:

After the 2020 election, [Trump] mused about whether he could send the military to interfere with the counting of votes. He wanted the Department of Justice and the FBI to potentially seize voting equipment. This is serious stuff. And this is Donald Trump's way of using the immigration issue as not just a way to trample on civil liberties, not just as a way to trample on federalism, not just as a way to flex his dictator and authoritarian-wannabe streak, but also to put in place the next steps - if he wants to and feels like he needs to - to prevent free and fair elections.

Trump’s debut deployment of those troops into Los Angeles is being challenged in court. A district court judge ruled against him, a decision that was stayed by an appeals court panel as three judges (two Trump appointees and one Biden appointee) weigh the case on the merits. Ultimately, though, the case will almost assuredly end up at the Supreme Court. Here’s the law that the Supreme Court will have to consider:

10 U.S. Code § 12406 states that the President may only federalize the National Guard to (1) repel an invasion of the United States by a foreign nation; (2) suppress a rebellion against the authority of the Government of the United States; or (3) execute the laws of the United States when the President is unable to do so with regular forces. Section 12406 further states that "[o]rders for these purposes shall be issued through the governors of the States."

Quite literally none of those conditions have been met. If the justices defer to the plain text of the Constitution, they will rule against Trump. That will not only mean that control of the National Guard will return to Governor Newsom, but Trump will lose his ability to be able to deploy the military to other cities— and with it, his pretense to station his enforcers across the country in the event that he tries to interfere in the next election.

Trump is thinking several steps ahead. We fail to do the same at our own peril.