Supreme Court poised to permanently entrench Republican rule

The latest move by SCOTUS is a "five alarm fire"

The biggest story in the country right now is flying completely under the radar. Last cycle, Louisiana Republicans were ordered to draw a second majority-Black district to be in compliance with the Voting Rights Act. But Republicans sued, saying that the creation of a second majority-Black district (so that Black voters in Louisiana would have fair representation) was actually discriminatory against white voters. Which is farcical, given that the whole point of the Voting Rights Act is to prevent white voters from stripping Black voters of their due representation. In other words, it is absurd on its face to suggest that the creation or preservation of Black opportunity districts are somehow discriminatory against white people.

But… the US Supreme Court didn’t think it was absurd. The justices curiously refused to hand down a ruling at the end of their term. And on Friday, SCOTUS ordered new legal briefings from the parties on whether or not the very concept of Black majority districts violate the 14th and 15th Amendments to the US Constitution. This matters because if SCOTUS finds that these Black-majority districts do violate the Constitution and that the VRA is actually unconstitutional, then there is no federal prohibition to stop states under Republican control from re-drawing their maps without the required opportunity districts. And there are dozens of those districts in states across the country intended to protect the voting power of oft-disenfranchised minority voters. Which means, where Republicans are in control, all of those theoretically could be drawn out of existence.

Right now the country’s attention is trained on Texas Republicans gerrymandering their maps even further in an effort to steal an additional five seats in midterms. But if the VRA is gutted, then the prospect of Republicans stealing only five seats will feel quaint. And the reality is that while California can (and must) counteract what Republicans are doing in Texas, we simply don’t have enough seats to counteract what Republicans could do if the Supreme Court decides to gut the VRA. The conservative bloc could cement Republican rule for good in the House.

So what are our options?

First off, the case still has to be litigated. And we’ll have good lawyers making as compelling a case as possible where they argue that Section 2 of the VRA has been upheld for decades, including by conservative justices who made a specific point to keep in tact that provision. “The Chief Justice made a point in Shelby County v. Holder of saying that Section 2 of the VRA continues to apply nationwide, and he and the other justices are going to be held to keep that promise,” Marc Elias, founder of Democracy Docket, explained to me. “So don’t count out the courts, don’t count out the lawyers arguing in the courts, and don’t count out the voters.”

Second, this should serve as a kick in the ass for Democratic governors that the Republicans are deploying all of their weapons. So as we engage in the more immediate redistricting fight on our plate (stemming from the Texas power grab), our governors need to understand that we’re in a war. And we need them to fight like it. As Elias said to me in our video coverage of this topic, if Republicans go for 5 seats, we go for 30. Not just because we need to fight fire with fire. Not just because we need to actually offer a legitimate deterrent. But because we need to put in place as much of a buffer as possible as we await a decision from the Supreme Court, which may result in a windfall of newly-drawn Republican seats.

And lastly, this is a reminder that we ultimately need to pass a federal ban on gerrymandering. That’s the only way we escape from this race to the bottom. But the only way we ever get into a position where we can do that in the first place is if we win, and the only way to win is to gerrymander back. We gain nothing by unilaterally disarming. You don’t get points for being the most moral. The victory here is doing whatever’s necessary to fight back and gain power, and only then can we seek nationwide good government reforms— ones that apply to everyone. Until then, the only way out of this mess is to fight. And if any of our elected officials are not willing to do so, they need to step aside and make way for someone who will.