Trump’s State of the Union Will Deny, Deny, Deny Reality

He’s on defense, the midterms are looming, and Republicans are about to repeat the same mistakes Democrats made in 2024. We need to seize the moment.

Trump’s going into tonight’s State of the Union on his back foot. And no amount of Team USA Olympic hockey players will help him play defense here.

Look at the standings:

Trump’s approval ratings are the lowest they’ve been since he took office.
He’s lost Americans on what should be slam dunk issues, the economy and immigration. He’s fresh off a brutal defeat at the Supreme Court, which struck down his beloved tariffs. And he’s implicated in the very pedophile cabal that his White House swore to expose.

The circumstances don’t bode well for Trump and the Republicans with midterms looming. Tonight’s speech (which I will livestream here) will be his full court press to turn the tide for them.

Change the Narrative

Trump needs this speech to change the narrative and win back the public. Though if you asked him going into it, he’d tell you the narrative is incredible and he has the American people in his pocket.

He’s got a heavy lift tonight. He needs to convince you that everything is going great. That your medical costs are down, that food assistance is plentiful, that your bills aren’t going up. He’s going to gaslight you into thinking that what you’re feeling day to day is not real.

He’s going to lie about all of it, and the Republicans on the floor are going to fall all over themselves to prop up those lies.

Clear Eyes, Can’t Lose

We know what he’s going to say: the country’s never been hotter! Costs are down! The stock market’s up! Everyone’s making money, and manufacturing is booming! He’s stopped transgender for everyone and gotten DEI out of the cockpits of airplanes!

It’s the usual buzzword salad. Don’t let it fool you.

Trump’s a showman, so expect a show. He loves a viral moment; recall in 2020 he turned the State of the Union into an awards show, giving Rush Limbaugh a Presidential Medal of Freedom live on air. Despite being a legendary reality TV producer, the one thing tonight’s event will be short on is a tether to reality.

He’s not going to acknowledge the fact that costs are up, manufacturing jobs are down, and wages are flat. Oh, and be on the lookout for the wag the dog, that time-honored tradition of ginning up wars abroad to distract from the mess you’ve made at home. Trump will wax poetic about Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran - this from the “no more wars” president - while fudging the numbers on just how much money he’s poured into those war games.

This State of the Union comes at the end of Trump’s yearlong effort to screw you and enrich himself personally.

Trump First, America last

While Trump drones on tonight, doing his signature “weave” from one issue to another, in and out of reality, ask yourself this:

Are you better off now than you were when he took office?

There’s an Opening

Democrats lost in 2024 by ignoring the realities voters were facing. Their messaging on the economy was, “everything’s fine,” and voters turned on them because it really wasn’t. Republicans are the direct beneficiaries of that strategy.

Seems like they’ve forgotten their own playbook, because now they’re telling you the economy’s great when your checkbook says otherwise. They’re doing exactly what they accused Democrats of doing.

That’s the opening.

Democrats are in a position to exploit the same strategy that was so successful for Republicans in 2024. But only if they capitalize on the messaging. And that messaging only works if it spreads.

In reality the only person who has benefitted from the presidency is Trump. Remember: he’s doubled his net worth, slapped his name on monuments to himself, built a ballroom in his honor, and enriched his family to the tune of billions of dollars. How many regular Americans can say the same?

The Stakes

Trump relies on rewriting reality to suit his needs, and a robust right wing media ecosystem is going to carry water for him. They will continue to repeat his lies until they feel true.

Without a platform to sound the alarm, to call out lies when we see them, false narratives harden, and the outcome of the midterms gets written before they even get started.

If Democrats are looking to win in 2026 and beyond, the ingredients are right in front of us. We have to be relentless in broadcasting the truth and owning the narrative every day from now to November.